As the markets open after the long Good Friday break, the Indian stock market is likely to begin on a tentative note, with global and local factors strongly influencing investor mood. From geopolitical news to corporate results, these are the 11 key pointers governing the market this week:
1. Gift Nifty Indicative of Weak Start
Gift Nifty was observed to be around 23,801, representing a 50-point discount to the last Nifty futures close. This points to a subdued to negative opening for the benchmark indices, as market caution.
2. Global Market Sentiment Mixed
Asian stocks displayed uneven performance after China chose to leave its loan prime rates unchanged. Japan's Nikkei and Topix fell more than 1%, while South Korea's Kospi posted small gains. Hong Kong and Australia were closed for Easter.
3. Wall Street Movement
US indices closed largely lower. Dow declined 1.33%, while S&P 500 edged up 0.13%. Nasdaq declined 0.13%. Uncertain corporate earnings and geopolitical concerns dampened investor sentiment.
Key Movers:
- Eli Lilly rose 14%
- UnitedHealth declined 22%
- Apple rose 1.4%
- Alphabet fell 1.4%
- Netflix rose 2.5%
4. Q4 Results: Focus on Banking & IT Giants
Infosys:
- Net Profit: ₹7,033 crore (+3.3% QoQ)
- Revenue: ₹40,925 crore (-2% QoQ)
- EBIT margin fell to 21%
HDFC Bank:
- Net Profit: ₹17,616 crore (+6.7% YoY)
- NII: ₹32,070 crore (+10.3% YoY)
- Dividend: ₹22/share
ICICI Bank:
- Net Profit: ₹12,629.6 crore (+18% YoY)
- NII: ₹21,193 crore (+11% YoY)
- NIM: 4.41%
- Dividend: ₹11/share
These robust banking earnings can be seen to bolster market sentiment in the near term.
5. China Keeps Loan Prime Rate Unchanged
China's central bank left its 1-year LPR unchanged at 3.1% and 5-year LPR unchanged at 3.6% for the sixth straight month, demonstrating a wait-and-watch approach towards economic recovery and managing inflation.
6. ECB Reduces Rates Again
The European Central Bank reduced rates by 25 bps to 2.4%, the seventh reduction in twelve months, with growth slowing down and rising worries over US tariffs. The reduction makes it more likely for additional global policy relaxation.
️ 7. US-Iran Negotiations Make 'Progress'
The US and Iran are said to be making progress toward a nuclear deal framework, which would de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. This helped bring crude oil prices down, providing potential relief on India's inflation front.
8. Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Tensions
Ukraine's offer of a 30-day ceasefire was tainted by allegations against Russia for violating the Easter ceasefire. Any escalation here could revive risk-off sentiment.
9. Dollar Dives to Multi-Year Lows
The US Dollar Index dipped to a 3-year low of 98.623, helping the euro and yen. The movement of the currency aided gold prices but might bear on export-driven sectors around the world.
10. Gold Hits Record High
Gold shot up to an all-time high of $3,361.53/oz on account of a falling dollar and safe-haven demand in light of uncertainties worldwide. Gold prices domestically also may see a surge.
️ 11. Crude Cools on Diplomatic Progress
- Crude went down by over 1%:
- Brent at $67.21/barrel
- WTI at $63.94/barrel
Cheaper crude might support Indian markets, cushioning the squeeze on import cost and inflation.
Market Outlook: What to Keep an Eye Out For This Week
- Index heavyweight Q4 earnings
- Pressure in derivatives expiry
- Global tariff strategies
- Macro numbers & US economics indicators
Analyst Perspective: "With Nifty retesting the 23,800 level again, market direction will depend on earnings and overseas cues. Buy-on-dips is the favorite strategy, particularly in rate-sensitive segments such as banking and real estate." — Ajit Mishra, Religare Broking.
Catch more updates and detailed coverage of market movements throughout the week!
Disclaimer:
This blog is informational only and not investment advice. Do consult qualified professionals before making an investment decision.
