April 8, 2025 | Market Outlook
The Indian equity markets are set to have a positive
beginning on Tuesday, recovering from Monday's steep correction. This follows
an overnight rally in Asian equities and a strong cue from the Gift Nifty,
which is quoting at 22,650 — a healthy 386-point premium over the last Nifty
futures close.
Indian indices got hammered in the last session:
- Sensex: Collapsed 2,226 points (-2.95%) to close at 73,137.90
- Nifty 50: Fell 742.85 points (-3.24%) to settle at 22,161.60
This was the largest one-day fall in about a year, with
bearish global cues, increased volatility, and profit-taking before key events.
Derivatives Signal: Bearish Grip Still Tight
- Call Writing dominant at 22,500 (45.23 lakh contracts) — strong resistance zone
- Put Writing observed at 22,000 (80.79 lakh contracts) — crucial support point
- Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dipped from 0.60 to 0.58, reflecting increasing caution
- Max Pain at 22,750 points towards sellers taking in each
bounce try
Technical View: Bounce or Breakdown
"21,743 daily chart long bull candle suggests buying
interest at lower levels. If this swing low holds, a short-term base can form,"
— Nagaraj Shetti, HDFC Securities
But the near-term trend continues to be sharply negative
with increasing volatility. The RSI of 34 indicates the market is approaching
oversold levels, while India VIX jumped 65% to 22.79 — levels last seen during
COVID-crash days, reflecting investor nervousness.
Bank Nifty: Holding Support But Struggling
Closed at 49,860.10, down 3.19%
Created a green candle close to 50-DEMA (~49,500), indicating some buying interest
Key resistance: 50,650–50,750; Support: 49,000–48,700
Watch for a decisive breach below 49,300 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement) for further downside
"The trend remains weak unless Bank Nifty forms a
higher high–higher low. Momentum indicators like RSI have slipped below 50,
warning of continued pressure," — Om Mehra, SAMCO Securities
Expert Strategy: Caution is King
"The correction provides long-term investors an
opportunity to enter quality stocks, but short-term traders need to follow a
'sell on rise' strategy during high volatility. With India VIX surging, options
are costly and hedging prices have increased," — VLA Ambala, Stock Market
Today
Key Market Triggers This Week:
- RBI monetary policy decision
- Beginning of Q4FY25 earnings
Global cues: US tariff policies and geopolitical risks
Market Mood: Optimistic opening on tap, but
follow-through subject to maintaining support levels and bringing volatility
into order.
