Indian stocks are expected to witness a soft to negative beginning today, as global cues and defensive sentiment prevail for early trading. Gift Nifty, as of this morning, is seen trading at around the 23,366 level, which is signaling a probable opening 67 points below yesterday's Nifty futures close.
Market Snapshot (April 16 Recap)
- Sensex: ▲ 309.40 pts | Closed at 77,044.29
- Nifty 50: ▲ 108.65 pts | Closed at 23,437.20
Both benchmark indices continued their rally for the third consecutive session, indicating signs of bullish strength. Caution may, however, prevail in today's session amidst important global events.
Global Sentiment Watch
Investor sentiment grew wary after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank would hold back on adjusting interest rates until more clarity emerges in the economic outlook. This wait-and-watch approach has resulted in some profit-taking and uncertainty in global markets.
Technical Outlook
Sensex Levels to Watch
- Support: 76,550
- Resistance: 77,300 – 77,500
Kotak Securities' Shrikant Chouhan points out that the Sensex has made a bullish candle on daily charts and still maintains an intraday uptrend. As long as 76,550 holds, bulls can target the 77,300–77,500 range. A break below 76,550 can lead to a downside towards the 76,200 area.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty's breakout above the 200-day EMA at 23,360 indicates strength. The runaway gaps on April 11 and 15 are unfilled, pointing towards continuation of the uptrend.
- Support: 23,300
- Resistance: 23,800 – 24,000
HDFC Securities' Nagaraj Shetti points out the significance of these unfilled gaps, which indicate mid-trend pickup that tends to result in strong rallies.
Derivatives Data Check (Nifty OI)
- Call OI (Resistance): 23,800 & 24,000
- Put OI (Support): 23,300
Choice Broking's Mandar Bhojane feels the current structure is bullish, and a breakout above the resistance level can attract fresh momentum on the upside.
Bank Nifty Outlook
Though not the main point today, Bank Nifty is something that needs to be monitored by traders as it can provide breakout moves in case of volatility picking up. Keep an eye on reaction at key psychological levels and sector-specific news, particularly from PSU and private banks.
Key Takeaways
Market likely to open lower due to global nervousness
Key support levels intact for now - bullish bias remains
Focusing on resistance: Nifty 23,800+, Sensex 77,300+
Views of Fed officials could keep market participants on tenterhooks
Follow intraday action and post-market wrap.
Disclaimer: This blog is for general information purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Kindly take advice from a financial advisor before making any investments.
